Coinbase in the Black as Prediction Markets Grow: What the Q3 Report Showed

Coinbase in the Black as Prediction Markets Grow: What the Q3 Report Showed

Coinbase reported its third-quarter 2026 results on October 29. Net income came to 718.7 million dollars, or 2.51 dollars per share.

Most of that amount is a 715 million gain from remeasuring the company's own crypto. Adjusted net income was 78 million dollars.

The quarter in numbers

Why revenue declined

Total revenue was 1.2 billion dollars, 34% less than a year earlier. Transaction revenue fell the most: 590.2 million, down 44%.

Transaction revenue is the fees from customer trading. Its decline points directly to a slowdown in trading activity on the platform.

Revenue has become more diversified

Trading fees now make up less than half of total revenue. The remaining roughly 610 million dollars comes from other business lines.

In our view, this is the main positive of the report. When trading fees shrink by 44% and total revenue falls much less, it is clear the business does not rely on a single source of income.

Prediction markets are gaining momentum

Prediction markets get their own line in the report. This business has passed an annualized revenue pace of 200 million dollars.

Prediction markets are venues where people trade contracts on the outcome of events: elections, sports matches, macro releases. The contract price reflects how participants assess the probability of the event.

We believe this business line reduces Coinbase's dependence on waves of spot trading. Interest in event contracts is tied to the news calendar, not only to crypto price moves.

Where the 718.7 million profit came from

Almost all of the net income is a remeasurement of crypto on the balance sheet. A result like this is on paper and can reverse.

Adjusted net income of 78 million dollars is closer to the result of the business itself. It is more modest, but it remains positive even as fees decline.

What the drop in fees says about the market

A 44% drop in transaction revenue signals that customers of a large regulated exchange traded noticeably less during the quarter.

From what we see, during periods of low activity order books on some venues get thinner. Spreads between exchanges appear more often, but the volume available at the best prices is often small.

That is why an arbitrage trader should look not only at the size of the gap but also at order book depth.

Our tools

When volumes on exchanges fall unevenly, spreads appear in different places, and it is easier to see them across all venues at once. Our arbitrage screener keeps dozens of venues in one window, refreshes quotes every second and shows each gap together with the volume actually behind it. The spread calculator helps you check what survives fees, network costs and slippage at your size. The bot is fully manual. It never connects to your exchange API keys.

To test the tools on a live market, ArbitrageScanner offers one day of free access to the whole ecosystem.

FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)

1. How much did Coinbase earn in the third quarter of 2026?

Net income came to 718.7 million dollars, or 2.51 dollars per share. Of this, 715 million was a gain from remeasuring its own crypto, and adjusted net income was 78 million.

2. Why did Coinbase's revenue fall?

Because of a slowdown in trading. Transaction revenue fell 44% year over year to 590.2 million dollars, and total revenue fell 34% to 1.2 billion.

3. How much does Coinbase earn from prediction markets?

As of the third quarter, this business passed an annualized revenue pace of 200 million dollars.

4. What is Coinbase's adjusted net income?

A metric closer to the result of the business itself. In the third quarter of 2026, it was 78 million dollars.

Conclusion

Coinbase ended the third quarter with net income of 718.7 million dollars, but almost all of it came from remeasuring its own crypto. Adjusted net income was 78 million, and revenue fell to 1.2 billion.

The positive side of the report is diversification: trading fees make up less than half of revenue, and prediction markets passed an annualized pace of 200 million. The slowdown in trading reminds arbitrage traders to check order book depth, not just spread size.

IMPORTANT! We are software developers. We do not give recommendations or promises of earnings and we do not advise you to invest your money anywhere. Our software is fully manual, all your money stays under your own control. We show examples of how our clients have earned on arbitrage in the past, but we do not advise repeating those actions one to one. Your earnings depend solely on your own actions and on market factors.