Fed Holds Rates at 3.75-4%: A 10-2 Vote and the Outlook for December

Fed Holds Rates at 3.75-4%: A 10-2 Vote and the Outlook for December

There was no October hike. On October 28, 2026, the Fed kept its rate in the 3.75-4% range.

The vote, however, was not unanimous - 10 to 2. It is the split, not the decision itself, that now sets the tone for December expectations.

What the Fed decided on October 28

Both dissenters voted not for a cut but for a hike. So the committee already has members in favor of tightening right now, even though the majority decided to wait.

How bitcoin reacted

Right after the decision, bitcoin jumped to around 81,700 dollars. The price then dipped below 80,500 and returned to 81,000.

The range of this move was about 1,200 dollars. From what we see, this is a familiar pattern for a Fed decision day: an initial spike, a pullback and a search for balance.

The backdrop before the meeting was supportive. From October 26 to 28, bitcoin ETFs saw inflows several days in a row, meaning money was entering the market even before the decision was announced.

What the split vote means for December

The market is now focused on the December meeting. The probability of a hike there was estimated at roughly 72-86%, with the range depending on the source.

In our view, two votes for a hike are a signal worth taking seriously. December turns from a formality into a live event that the market will start preparing for in advance.

The upside is that the market has time to price in the December scenario gradually.

Funding and spreads: what arbitrage traders should expect

In the first minutes after a Fed decision, spreads between exchanges widen and order books on smaller venues thin out. Some exchanges keep up with the move, others lag by seconds.

Tightening expectations usually cool demand for leverage. If the market prices in a December hike more actively, funding on perps may decline and turn negative on some exchanges.

• keep a margin buffer on every leg of the trade until volatility after the decision subsides
• compare funding across several exchanges at once: the divergence between rates is often more useful than the rate itself
• calculate fees and slippage before entry, not after
• mark the December meeting in your calendar in advance, along with the inflation and jobs data released before it

We believe that until December the market will react sharply to every batch of data. For an arbitrage trader this is more of an opportunity: gaps between exchanges appear precisely at such moments.

Our tools

On a Fed decision day, exchanges reprice at different speeds, and the gap is easier to spot when every venue is visible in one window. Our arbitrage screener keeps dozens of venues in one window, refreshes quotes every second and shows each gap together with the volume actually behind it. The spread calculator helps you check what survives fees, network costs and slippage at your size. The bot is fully manual. It never connects to your exchange API keys.

To test the tools on a live market, ArbitrageScanner offers one day of free access to the whole ecosystem.

FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)

1. What rate did the Fed set on October 28, 2026?

The Fed kept the rate unchanged in the 3.75-4% range. The decision was made by a 10-2 vote.

2. Who voted against the Fed decision in October?

Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. Both favored a quarter-point rate hike.

3. How did bitcoin react to the Fed decision?

Right after the decision, bitcoin jumped to around 81,700 dollars, then dipped below 80,500 and returned to 81,000.

4. Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?

The market put the probability of a December hike at roughly 72-86% depending on the source. The outcome will depend on the data released before the meeting.

Conclusion

On October 28 the Fed held rates at 3.75-4%, and after a short swing bitcoin returned to 81,000 dollars. There was no October hike, and that is good news for the market.

The 10-2 vote shifts attention to December. Arbitrage traders should build in a margin buffer ahead of time, watch funding and catch price gaps on data release days.

IMPORTANT! We are software developers. We do not give recommendations or promises of earnings and we do not advise you to invest your money anywhere. Our software is fully manual, all your money stays under your own control. We show examples of how our clients have earned on arbitrage in the past, but we do not advise repeating those actions one to one. Your earnings depend solely on your own actions and on market factors.