MSCI Publishes Its List on November 11: What Lies Ahead for Strategy

MSCI Publishes Its List on November 11: What Lies Ahead for Strategy

On November 11, 2026, MSCI will publish which companies without core operating activities (non-operating) will be removed from its indexes. The changes will take effect after November 30.

Strategy and Metaplanet may fall under these rules. In October we wrote about MSCI's October 16 decision on a filter for such companies, and now the market is waiting for the actual list.

What we know as of November 3

Shares will be sold, not bitcoin

MSCI indexes are tracked by passive funds. If a company is removed, the funds sell its shares by the effective date without assessing the business itself.

JPMorgan previously estimated such selling of Strategy shares at about 2.8 billion dollars. But these are securities on the stock market: the company's bitcoins stay on its balance sheet.

In our view, there is no direct pressure on bitcoin here. There is an indirect channel: if the share premium compresses, it will be harder for the treasury company to raise cheap money for new purchases.

The buffer may offer protection

Existing index members have a buffer. A company will be removed only if it fails the filters for the last two annual periods in a row.

We believe the buffer is the main question for November 11. If it applies to Strategy, the forced selling scenario may be pushed back.

Strategy keeps buying

At the end of the third quarter, Strategy held 848,517 BTC, and its quarterly profit came to 19.5 billion dollars. The company recently bought another 811 BTC.

The index decision does not change the company's balance sheet. It only affects who holds its shares.

What arbitrage traders should watch

• the premium of Strategy shares to the value of its bitcoins: it is especially volatile around index dates
• share volatility on November 11 and closer to November 30, when funds execute the changes
• bitcoin prices on different exchanges: if the market confuses share selling with coin selling, quotes may diverge
• nearby events: payrolls on November 6 and CPI on November 10 come out right before the decision

From what we see, the market often prices in index decisions in advance. So sharp moves are possible both before November 11 and in the last days of the month.

Our tools

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FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)

1. What will MSCI publish on November 11, 2026?

A list of companies without core operating activities that will be removed from its indexes. The changes will take effect after November 30.

2. Will Strategy be removed from MSCI indexes?

Strategy may fall under the rules, but existing members have a buffer: a company is removed only if it fails the filters for the last two annual periods in a row.

3. How many Strategy shares could passive funds sell?

JPMorgan previously estimated passive selling at about 2.8 billion dollars. This concerns shares, not bitcoin.

4. How will the MSCI decision affect bitcoin?

There is no direct pressure, since it is shares that would be sold. Indirectly, a compressed premium could make it harder to raise money for new bitcoin purchases.

Conclusion

On November 11, MSCI will publish its list of non-operating companies to be removed, with changes taking effect after November 30. Strategy holds 848,517 BTC and keeps buying.

If removed, it is shares that would be sold, not bitcoin, and the buffer for index members may push this scenario back. For an arbitrage trader, it is more useful to watch the premium and volatility than to guess the decision.

IMPORTANT! We are software developers. We do not give recommendations or promises of earnings and we do not advise you to invest your money anywhere. Our software is fully manual, all your money stays under your own control. We show examples of how our clients have earned on arbitrage in the past, but we do not advise repeating those actions one to one. Your earnings depend solely on your own actions and on market factors.