MSCI decides on October 16 whether to keep Strategy and Metaplanet in its indexes: what it means for the premium

MSCI decides on October 16 whether to keep Strategy and Metaplanet in its indexes: what it means for the premium

On October 16, index provider MSCI will make a decision on a filter for companies without a core operating business. Strategy and Metaplanet may fall under it, and the changes are planned to take effect in November.

Both companies hold bitcoin as their main asset. Strategy has about 848,000 BTC, Metaplanet has 44,000.

Why this matters

MSCI indexes are tracked by huge passive funds. If a company is excluded, the funds are required to sell its shares by the change date, regardless of how they view the business itself.

From what we see, the market prices in decisions like this in advance. Selling and rising volatility often start before the date itself, and sometimes before the announcement.

What an exclusion would hit

It's important to separate the shares from bitcoin. What gets sold will be Strategy and Metaplanet shares, not coins, so the decision creates no direct pressure on bitcoin.

But there is an indirect channel. In our view, a compressed premium makes it harder for treasury companies to raise money cheaply for buying bitcoin, which could weaken one of the market's big buyers.

What an arbitrage trader should do

Watch the premium rather than guess the decision. Shares of bitcoin treasury companies trade at a premium or discount to the value of their bitcoin, and around index decisions this gap becomes especially volatile.

We believe that for those with access to the stock market, this is a time of heightened premium volatility. But it's hard to work with: shares and bitcoin trade at different hours on different venues, and shorting shares requires access and costs money.

Our tools

How bitcoin moves across exchanges on days of treasury company news only shows up when you compare venues. Our arbitrage screener keeps dozens of venues in one window, refreshes quotes every second and shows each gap together with the volume actually behind it. The spread calculator helps you check what survives fees, network costs and slippage at your size. The bot is fully manual. It never connects to your exchange API keys.

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FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)

1. What will MSCI decide on October 16?

Whether to introduce a filter for companies without a core operating business. Strategy and Metaplanet may fall under it.

2. Why does this matter?

Indexes are tracked by passive funds. On exclusion they are required to sell the company's shares by the change date.

3. Will this lead to bitcoin being sold?

No, it's the shares that will be sold, not the coins. But a compressed premium could weaken treasury companies as bitcoin buyers.

4. What should an arbitrage trader do?

Watch the premium of the shares to the value of their bitcoin. Around index decisions it is especially volatile.

Conclusion

On October 16 MSCI will decide on a filter that Strategy and Metaplanet may fall under. Exclusion means passive funds selling the shares.

For arbitrage, it's important to separate the shares from bitcoin: the decision creates no direct pressure on the coin, but it could compress the treasury companies' premium and weaken them as buyers. Watch the premium rather than guess the decision.

IMPORTANT! We are software developers. We do not give recommendations or promises of earnings and we do not advise you to invest your money anywhere. Our software is fully manual, all your money stays under your own control. We show examples of how our clients have earned on arbitrage in the past, but we do not advise repeating those actions one to one. Your earnings depend solely on your own actions and on market factors.