Solo Bitcoin Mining: Your Odds of Finding a Block and How to Calculate Them

Solo Bitcoin Mining: Your Odds of Finding a Block and How to Calculate Them

Solo bitcoin mining means mining without a pool: if your hardware finds a block, the entire reward is yours. If it does not, you get nothing, no matter how long the machines run.

This guide was prompted by fresh news: on November 7 it emerged that a solo miner with a hashrate of about 581 TH/s had found a block and received 3.1335 BTC. Let's look at how to calculate such odds yourself.

What solo bitcoin mining is

A miner tries out hash candidates for the next block. Whoever finds a valid one first adds the block to the network and collects the reward: newly minted coins plus the transaction fees.

In a pool, participants combine their hashrate and share the reward. In solo mining you compete against the entire network on your own.

How to calculate the odds of finding a bitcoin block

The formula is simple. The chance over a period equals your share of the network hashrate multiplied by the number of blocks in that period.

• hashrate share = your hashrate / network hashrate
• blocks per day - about 144, one block every 10 minutes on average
• blocks per year - about 52,560
• expected number of blocks = share × number of blocks

When the expected number of blocks is much less than one, it can be read directly as a probability. A value of 0.03 means a chance of about 3% over the period, or roughly 1 in 33.

Example: calculating a solo miner's odds

The example is hypothetical. Let's take a network hashrate of about 1,000 EH/s: this is a round assumption for the calculation, and the real figure changes every day.

1,000 EH/s is a billion TH/s. A miner with 581 TH/s owns a share of 0.000000581 of the whole network.

Multiply by 52,560 blocks a year and you get about 0.03 blocks. That is a chance of roughly 1 in 33 per year, close to the 1 in 35 estimate from the news: the difference comes from the network hashrate, which we took as a hypothetical figure.

Odds of finding a block in a year at different hashrates

The table is calculated for a hypothetical network hashrate of 1,000 EH/s. If the network grows, all the odds fall proportionally.

From what we see, beginners often confuse odds with a guarantee. Odds of 1 in 33 do not mean a block will be found within 33 years: every block is a new attempt, and luck may come on the first day or not at all.

How much electricity costs for solo mining

The example is hypothetical. A 200 TH/s ASIC draws about 3.4 kW, which is roughly 29,800 kWh a year running around the clock.

At a rate of $0.07 per kWh, the annual bill comes to about $2,085. The odds of finding a block with such a machine are roughly 1 in 95 per year.

On average, such a miner produces about 0.033 BTC a year: 0.0105 blocks × the 3.125 BTC base reward. In a pool it would receive this amount in parts, minus a fee, while solo it gets either the entire reward or nothing.

How solo mining differs from a pool

Solo CKPool, in general terms, is a public solo mining service. A miner connects hardware to its server instead of running their own node, and if a block is found, receives the reward minus a small service fee.

Who solo mining suits

In our view, solo mining should be seen as a lottery ticket, not a business. It suits those who already have hardware and cheap electricity and can calmly accept that a block may never be found.

• home miners with small devices who mine for fun
• owners of surplus cheap energy
• those who understand the math of the odds and do not count on regular revenue

We believe those who pay for electricity out of working capital are better off looking at pools. Regular payouts are easier to match against the bills.

Our tools

A miner eventually sells the mined coins, and the bitcoin price on different exchanges can differ noticeably at the same moment, so it helps to see all the venues at once. Our arbitrage screener keeps dozens of venues in one window, refreshes quotes every second and shows each gap together with the volume actually behind it. The spread calculator helps you check what survives fees, network costs and slippage at your size. The bot is fully manual. It never connects to your exchange API keys.

To test the tools on a live market, ArbitrageScanner offers one day of free access to the whole ecosystem.

FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)

1. Can you find a bitcoin block on your own?

Yes, it happens: in November 2026 a solo miner with a hashrate of about 581 TH/s found a block. But the odds for a small miner are very low.

2. How do you calculate the odds of finding a bitcoin block?

Divide your hashrate by the network hashrate and multiply by the number of blocks in the period: about 144 per day or 52,560 per year.

3. How much is paid for a found bitcoin block?

The base reward after the 2024 halving is 3.125 BTC. Transaction fees from the block are added on top.

4. What is Solo CKPool?

A public solo mining service. A miner connects hardware to the server and, if a block is found, receives the reward minus a small fee.

5. Which is more profitable: solo mining or a pool?

Expected revenue is similar on average; the difference is in the variance. A pool gives small regular payouts, solo gives the whole reward at once or nothing.

6. How much hashrate do you need to find a block in a year?

With a hypothetical network hashrate of 1,000 EH/s, about 19 PH/s gives one block a year on average. But even with that much power there is no guarantee.

Conclusion

A solo miner's odds are easy to calculate: your share of the network hashrate multiplied by the number of blocks. For 581 TH/s on a hypothetical 1,000 EH/s network, that is about 1 in 33 per year.

Solo mining is a lottery with clear math. If you need regular revenue, a pool is the smarter choice, and solo is best left as an extra ticket for those with hardware and cheap energy.

IMPORTANT! We are software developers. We do not give recommendations or promises of earnings and we do not advise you to invest your money anywhere. Our software is fully manual, all your money stays under your own control. We show examples of how our clients have earned on arbitrage in the past, but we do not advise repeating those actions one to one. Your earnings depend solely on your own actions and on market factors.